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loadingThe Humanoids Robot Economy- Part 2
Dinis GuardaAuthor
Mon Jun 16 2025
In 2025, AI isn’t just digital it walks among us. From Tesla’s bots to China’s state-backed projects, startups to labs, humanoid robotics marks both an industrial shift and a reflection of human progress. But it’s not just about machines. As we blur artificial and authentic, we redefine human potential democratizing knowledge, expanding collaboration, and reshaping learning. This is the story of two awakenings: mechanical consciousness rising alongside human evolution, each fueling the other in an unprecedented dance.
The Colossus Awakens - Mapping the Humanoid Titan (2025-2050)
"In every age 'the good old days' were a myth. No one ever thought they were good at the time. For every age has consisted of crises that seemed intolerable to the people who lived through them." - Brooks Atkinson
As we peer through the industrial mists of 2025, a new constellation of corporate titans and technological insurgents emerges, each wielding silicon and steel in pursuit of mechanical dominion. The humanoid revolution unfolds not as a single narrative, but as a symphony of competing visions—from Tesla's vertical integration prophecy to China's state-sponsored ascendancy, from venture-backed unicorns to academic offspring spinning into commercial reality.
The field now expands to continents and … consciousness , where artificial intelligence meets physical embodiment in an unprecedented fusion of disciplines. Unlike previous technological revolutions confined to virtual realms, this transformation demands mastery across the full spectrum of human engineering prowess: from quantum processors that dream in mathematics to actuators that translate digital intention into mechanical reality.
When machines gain limbs and language, so too do humans evolve—not merely in tools, but in awareness. The lattice of global interconnection, amplified by ubiquitous access to knowledge and collaborative technologies, begins to rewire the very architecture of perception. Education sheds its ivory tower, flowing instead through open platforms, peer-to-peer systems, and immersive simulations that dissolve the boundary between learning and being. In this mirrored ascent, consciousness stretches: beyond borders, beyond disciplines, even beyond the individual.
As we co-create with machines, a new literacy emerges—one that fuses emotional intelligence with systems thinking, pattern recognition with ethical foresight. It is not only the humanoids who are awakening, but the humans themselves, stirred into a deeper encounter with their own potential.
The Established Titans: When Giants Learn to Walk
Tesla's Vertical Integration Empire
Elon Musk's Tesla represents perhaps the most vertically integrated approach to humanoid development, leveraging the company's automotive DNA to birth mechanical progeny. Tesla plans to begin limited production of its humanoid robot, Optimus, in 2025, initially deploying several thousand units for internal use within its factories. Mass production is expected to ramp up by 2026, targeting 50,000-100,000 units, with ambitions to scale to 500,000 robots annually by 2029.
The Optimus project embodies Tesla's DREAMS framework in physical form—each robot serves as both product and data collection vehicle, continuously training the company's Full Self-Driving algorithms through real-world interaction. Tesla Bot is positioned as a likely status symbol, echoing the iPhone's transformation from luxury item to ubiquitous necessity.
Boston Dynamics: The Engineering Virtuoso
Boston Dynamics, renowned for its quadrupedal robots like Spot, has also made significant advancements in humanoid robotics. Its humanoid robot, Atlas, is capable of performing impressive stunts like backflips and parkour. Atlas is designed for tasks in hazardous environments, such as search and rescue. Now owned by Hyundai following a $1.1 billion acquisition, Boston Dynamics brings three decades of robotics research to the commercial battlefield.
The world's most dynamic humanoid robot, Atlas robot is designed for real-world applications. An advanced control system and state-of-the-art hardware give the robot the power and balance to demonstrate advanced athletics and agility. Atlas represents the apotheosis of mechanical athleticism—a machine that moves with grace that often surpasses human capability.
The Venture-Backed Insurgents: Silicon Valley's Mechanical Offspring
Figure AI: The $39.5 Billion Phenomenon
Perhaps no company better embodies the speculative fervour surrounding humanoid robotics than Figure AI. Robotics startup Figure AI is in talks to raise $1.5 billion in funding that would value the company at $39.5 billion... That's a whopping 15 times higher than Figure's $2.6 billion post-money valuation for its $675 million Series B last year.
This astronomical valuation—exceeding the market capitalisation of many established industrial giants—reflects Silicon Valley's characteristic blend of technological optimism and financial speculation. CEO Adcock promised that Figure AI will reveal something no one has ever seen on a humanoid within the next 30 days, whilst simultaneously announcing plans to produce and deploy 100,000 humanoid robots over the forthcoming years.
Figure's partnership with BMW demonstrates real-world commercial validation: an autonomous fleet of Figure 02 robots will start working full-time for BMW's Spartanburg, SC plant after a successful pilot earlier in 2024. According to Figure, the second-generation AI robot now performs industrial tasks 4x faster and 7x more accurately compared to the trial.
Agility Robotics: The Warehouse Philosopher
Based in Oregon, Agility Robotics is known for its bipedal robots, including Cassie and Digit. Cassie made headlines in 2022 when it broke the Guinness World Record for the fastest 100-meter dash by a bipedal robot, completing the race in just 24.73 seconds. The company represents a more measured approach to humanoid commercialisation, focusing on specific use cases rather than general-purpose capabilities.
Agility Robotics targets $400M funding round... bringing Agility's valuation to a $1.75 billion, positioning the company as a significant player whilst maintaining a more conservative financial profile than Figure AI. Agility calls Robo Fab the world's first factory for mass-producing humanoids... The 70,000 square-foot factory can produce up to 10,000 robots per year.
The AI Infrastructure Overlords: NVIDIA's Silicon Supremacy
NVIDIA has emerged as the indispensable enabler of the humanoid revolution, providing the computational backbone that transforms mechanical bodies into intelligent agents. Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of NVIDIA says:
"Physical AI and robotics will bring about the next industrial revolution. From AI brains for robots to simulated worlds to practice in or AI supercomputers for training foundation models, NVIDIA provides building blocks for every stage of the robotics development journey."
The company's Isaac GR00T platform represents a paradigm shift in robot development methodology. Developers use these dreams to bulk up training data, improving model performance, and reducing the need to manually capture teleoperation data by a factor of 20. The team trained GR00T N1.5 using Dreams generated in 36 hours versus what would have taken three months for a human to manually capture.
Agility Robotics, Boston Dynamics, Fourier, Foxlink, Galbot, Mentee Robotics, NEURA Robotics, General Robotics, Skild AI and XPENG Robotics are adopting NVIDIA Isaac platform, creating an ecosystem where NVIDIA's simulation and AI tools become the common development infrastructure across competing hardware platforms.
The AI Infrastructure Overlords: NVIDIA's Silicon Supremacy
NVIDIA has emerged as the indispensable enabler of the humanoid revolution, providing the computational backbone that transforms mechanical bodies into intelligent agents. Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of NVIDIA says:
"Physical AI and robotics will bring about the next industrial revolution. From AI brains for robots to simulated worlds to practice in or AI supercomputers for training foundation models, NVIDIA provides building blocks for every stage of the robotics development journey."
The company's Isaac GR00T platform represents a paradigm shift in robot development methodology. Developers use these dreams to bulk up training data, improving model performance, and reducing the need to manually capture teleoperation data by a factor of 20. The team trained GR00T N1.5 using Dreams generated in 36 hours versus what would have taken three months for a human to manually capture.
Agility Robotics, Boston Dynamics, Fourier, Foxlink, Galbot, Mentee Robotics, NEURA Robotics, General Robotics, Skild AI and XPENG Robotics are adopting NVIDIA Isaac platform, creating an ecosystem where NVIDIA's simulation and AI tools become the common development infrastructure across competing hardware platforms.
The Chinese Ascendancy: State-Sponsored Silicon Dreams
China's approach to humanoid robotics combines state coordination with entrepreneurial dynamism. According to Chinese state media, Electric Vehicle (EV) makers like BYD and Geely have already deployed some of Unitree's humanoid robots at their factories. This early commercial deployment demonstrates China's willingness to adopt humanoid technology ahead of Western counterparts.
Unitree released its G1 humanoid robot for consumers in May with a starting price of $16,000. In comparison, Morgan Stanley estimates that the selling cost of Tesla's Optimus Gen2 humanoid robot could be around $20,000, showcasing China's cost advantage in manufacturing.
The geographic distribution of innovation reflects deeper strategic competition: Morgan Stanley's February research note found that the country has led the world in patent filings mentioning "humanoid" over the past five years, with 5,688 patents compared with 1,483 from the United States.
The Consultancy Alliance: Accenture, Deloitte, and Strategic Implementation
Major consulting firms have emerged as crucial intermediaries between humanoid technology and enterprise adoption. Half of the factory managers of industrial companies (49%) expect AMRs to be a key element of future factories and 43% believe humanoid robots will become a standard component of assembly processes, according to a recent Accenture research report.
Accenture and Schaeffler are starting to adopt Mega, an NVIDIA Omniverse Blueprint, to test robot fleets, including general-purpose humanoid robots, in industrial digital twins of factories and warehouses. This collaboration demonstrates how traditional industrial companies leverage consulting expertise to navigate the humanoid transformation.
Deloitte's research emphasises practical considerations: Humanoid robots should be seen as machines capable of reliably and accurately performing a wide range of complex, primarily repetitive tasks. However, it is essential to recognize that humanoid robots are not currently a one-size-fits-all solution for all industries and their needs.
Market Projection Convergence: The £30-38 Billion Consensus
Multiple research organisations converge on remarkably similar market projections, despite using different methodologies. According to a Goldman Sachs Research project, the total addressable market for humanoid robots is projected to reach $38 billion by 2035, up more than sixfold from a previous projection of $6 billion, whilst IDTechEx estimates the market size for humanoid robot will reach around US$30 billion by 2035.
This convergence across independent research organisations suggests robust analytical consensus about the sector's growth trajectory, lending credibility to the substantial investments flowing into humanoid development.
| Company | Headquarters | Valuation (2025) | Key Robot Model | Target Market | Production Timeline |
| Tesla | Austin, TX | $800B (parent) | Optimus Gen 2 | Industrial/Consumer | 5,000 units (2025) |
| Figure AI | Sunnyvale, CA | £30.4B | Figure 02 | Manufacturing | 100,000 units planned |
| Boston Dynamics | Waltham, MA | £846M (acq. price) | Atlas (Electric) | Hazardous Environments | Limited production |
| Agility Robotics | Corvallis, OR | £1.35B | Digit | Logistics/Warehousing | 10,000 units/year capacity |
| Apptronik | Austin, TX | Undisclosed | Apollo | Industrial/Healthcare | Partnership with Amazon |
| 1X (Halodi) | Sunnyvale, CA | £157M raised | NEO Beta | Consumer/Security | Research phase |
| Unitree Robotics | Hangzhou, China | Undisclosed | G1 | Consumer/Research | £12,300 retail price |
| UBTech | Shenzhen, China | Public (HKG) | Walker S1 | Industrial | 500+ orders received |
| Company | Platform/Model | Key Technology | Adoption Rate | Revenue Model |
| NVIDIA | Isaac GR00T N1.5 | Foundation Models | 15+ major adopters | Licensing + Hardware |
| OpenAI | Custom Models | Language Integration | Figure AI (ended) | API + Partnerships |
| Microsoft | Azure AI Platform | Cloud Infrastructure | Figure AI partner | Cloud services |
| Meta | Reality Labs Division | Computer Vision | Internal development | Hardware ecosystem |
| Amazon | AWS Robotics | Cloud + Fulfillment | Agility partnership | Services + Deployment |
| Region | 2030 Market Share | 2050 Market Share | Key Drivers | Leading Companies |
| China | 35% | 42% | State investment, cost advantage | Unitree, UBTech, XPeng |
| United States | 28% | 31% | Innovation, venture capital | Tesla, Figure AI, Boston Dynamics |
| European Union | 18% | 15% | Industrial integration | BMW partnerships, NEURA |
| Japan | 12% | 8% | Ageing population, robotics culture | Honda, Sony robotics |
| Rest of World | 7% | 4% | Emerging market adoption | Various local players |
| Company | Latest Round | Amount Raised | Lead Investors | Strategic Significance |
| Figure AI | Series C (pending) | £1.15B | Parkway Venture, Align | 15x valuation increase |
| Agility Robotics | Series C | £307M | WP Global, SoftBank | Mass production funding |
| Apptronik | Series A | £269M | Undisclosed | Amazon partnership |
| 1X | Series A2 | £18M | OpenAI | AI integration focus |
| Sanctuary AI | Strategic | £23M | Various | Canadian government support |
The Startup Ecosystem: Academic Offspring and Garage Visionaries
Beyond the well-funded giants lies a vibrant ecosystem of specialised players, each pursuing distinct technological approaches. 1X (formerly known as Halodi Robotics) is a Norwegian robotics company developing humanoid robots to assist humans in everyday tasks. Their focus is on safety and affordability, with their robot EVE designed for roles in security, healthcare, and other service-oriented industries.
This diversity of approaches—from Tesla's automotive-derived methodology to 1X's safety-first philosophy—ensures robust technological exploration across multiple paths toward humanoid capability.
The Meta Dimension: Reality Labs' Stealth Revolution
Meta Platforms is establishing a new division within its Reality Labs unit to develop AI-powered humanoid robots that can assist with physical tasks, according to an internal company memo, representing a significant strategic shift for the social media giant.
Meta's entry leverages the company's massive user base and computer vision expertise, potentially creating the largest dataset of human behaviour for robot training. Every interaction with Meta's platforms becomes potential training data for humanoid systems, embodying the convergence of digital and physical artificial intelligence.
Strategic Partnerships: The Industrial Alliance Matrix
The humanoid revolution unfolds through strategic alliances that combine technological capability with market access. BMW's partnership with Figure AI, Amazon's collaboration with Agility Robotics, and Schaeffler's investment in humanoid infrastructure demonstrate how traditional industrial companies hedge their bets across multiple robotic platforms.
Schaeffler Group, based in Germany, made a minority investment into Agility, agreeing to purchase Digit robots to work in its 100 plants globally by 2030. The motion technology juggernaut employs around 115,000 people globally.
These partnerships serve dual purposes: providing robotics companies with real-world testing environments whilst offering traditional manufacturers optionality in their automation strategies.
The Academic Genesis: University Spin-offs and Research Commercialisation
Many leading humanoid companies trace their origins to academic research programmes. Agility Robotics emerged from Oregon State University, whilst numerous Chinese companies build upon research from institutions like Tsinghua and Beijing University of Technology.
This academic foundation ensures continuous technological advancement whilst creating talent pipelines for the commercial sector. The symbiosis between university research and commercial development accelerates innovation cycles and maintains technological competitiveness.
Market Timing and the Network Effect
The humanoid revolution benefits from extraordinary timing alignment across multiple technological domains. Advances in artificial intelligence, battery technology, materials science, and manufacturing converge to enable capabilities previously confined to science fiction.
AI progress surprised us the most... referring to advances such as robotic large language models (LLMs) — a key reason for the forecast change, highlighting how breakthroughs in one domain catalyse progress across the entire ecosystem.
The network effects become self-reinforcing: as more companies develop humanoid capabilities, component costs decrease, talent pools expand, and technological standards emerge. This creates positive feedback loops that accelerate industry maturation whilst potentially consolidating market power among early leaders.
The Geopolitical Dimension: National Security and Industrial Policy
Humanoid robotics transcends commercial competition to become a matter of national strategic importance. American robotics companies are pushing for a national robotics strategy, including establishing a federal office focused on promoting the industry, whilst China implements comprehensive state-led development programmes.
This geopolitical dimension ensures sustained investment regardless of short-term commercial uncertainties, creating stable foundations for long-term technological development whilst potentially fragmenting the global market along national lines.
Looking Forward: The Convergence Prophecy
As we survey this landscape of titanesque ambitions and silicon dreams, patterns emerge that transcend individual company strategies. The successful humanoid platforms will likely combine Tesla's vertical integration, NVIDIA's AI infrastructure, China's manufacturing efficiency, and traditional industry's deployment expertise.
The winners in this mechanical renaissance will be those who master not merely the technology of artificial bodies, but the entire ecosystem of their creation, deployment, and continuous improvement. Like the automotive industry before it, humanoid robotics will ultimately consolidate around a few dominant platforms whilst spawning countless specialist suppliers and service providers.
The stage is set for the greatest industrial transformation since Ford's assembly line democratised mobility. Whether humanity emerges from this crucible enhanced or diminished depends upon choices we make today about the values we embed in our mechanical progeny.
The Humanoids Robot Economy- Part 1
The Humanoids Robot Economy- Part 3
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Dinis Guarda
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Dinis Guarda is an author, entrepreneur, founder CEO of ztudium, Businessabc, citiesabc.com and Wisdomia.ai. Dinis is an AI leader, researcher and creator who has been building proprietary solutions based on technologies like digital twins, 3D, spatial computing, AR/VR/MR. Dinis is also an author of multiple books, including "4IR AI Blockchain Fintech IoT Reinventing a Nation" and others. Dinis has been collaborating with the likes of UN / UNITAR, UNESCO, European Space Agency, IBM, Siemens, Mastercard, and governments like USAID, and Malaysia Government to mention a few. He has been a guest lecturer at business schools such as Copenhagen Business School. Dinis is ranked as one of the most influential people and thought leaders in Thinkers360 / Rise Global’s The Artificial Intelligence Power 100, Top 10 Thought leaders in AI, smart cities, metaverse, blockchain, fintech.
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